We took — and still take — pride in writing about ideas that could not be found on Google. Getting indexed was a great feeling. But then search engine optimization happened, and the fun sport became big-buck soccer. It was not about what content you created, it was more about how well-tagged and searched and researched you were. But time is a strange entity; it keeps moving. This is why cycles occur, growth and decay take place and level-playing fields get recreated.
The philosophy of war is linked to psychology, timing, and calculation of chance. This can help both in life and markets. We look at Sun Tzu's timeless work from the perspective of life and markets.
I am reading Critical Mass, Philip Ball. It talks about patterns in nature and the market and how they are scientifically linked. The author does a tremendous job showcasing order in a presupposed random world. In one of the chapters, the author illustrates how financial crashes and statistical mechanics overlap.
A recent Harvard Business Review article co-authored by psychologist and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman gives a checklist approach to decision making at an institutional level to avoid biases.
The idea of patterns and order is used conveniently by behavioral finance to challenge conventional economics. But the question of why that order exists has not been researched.
Abstract: Divergence is an understudied subject loosely defined as an unpredictable random error. The classification of divergences as small or large is also at the heart of efficient or inefficient market theory debate. This paper explains how divergence is cyclical and can be quantified and used as a predictive model.
If 3D Time and 3D Space were interchangeable, we have a unified theory of science which is easier to comprehend than the complex string theory. The recent work on the possibility of multiverse rather than universe brings us closer to understanding the cosmos and the closer we get to understanding cosmos, the closer we get to understanding Time. The Big Bang mystery of expansion and contraction has been challenged by a new theory which uses dark matter to explain why the big bang may not contract but expand forever.
Ultimately the Raj Rajaratnam insider trading issue questions whether information, like price, is inefficient.
I was working on a presentation this week and the time allocated to me was 18 minutes. It's always tough to simplify the message. I allocated some additional hours to fine-tune my message. It was not a coincidence that I wanted to write on intertemporal choices (current decisions impacting options available in future), was speaking on time and was struggling with 18 minutes. This was a personal choice. But there are choices that we make in the context of time. And how our decisions change with the context is something that we as a society don't comprehend well. People tend to ignore (or at least underweight) information about the future consequences of decisions.
Cheap cost of money is one reason why markets may discount negative news and continue to rise despite any short-term negativity. I was invited to present at the Market Technicians Association, Global Intermarket conference at Budapest. Technicians from Central and Eastern Europe had come together to discuss the global Intermarket situation and outlook for 2011. In this first issue of the year, I will discuss the observations made at the conference regarding the larger global perspective, and next week I will summarize the global outlook for 2011.
Robert Shiller was not only one of the few to challenge the efficient market theory, as early as 1981 he was also the first to connect fundamental data with market data.
Why does society find it so tough to comprehend whether the future is inflationary or deflationary?
Abraham Lincoln was careful about what he wrote. But it was his duel of 1842 with James Shields that really brought that cautious change. Dueling was a normal practice to challenge and sort out differences. Lincoln apologized and managed to avoid a potential disaster. America could have lost its president to a duel.
Benner’s model of ‘Time’ predicts a mini-crash in 2011, a boom till 2019, and a depression in 2021. He was the first one to talk about hierarchal ‘Time’ in 1875.
The global monetary system needs financial and technological innovation. Peter Bernstein looked at gold from a historical aspect in his book ‘The Power of Gold, the history of an obsession. From the start of the Egyptian era in 3100 BC when Pharaohs ruled the Roman Empire, the author illustrated how gold slowly and steadily became real money.a
Some problems span multi-generations, Benoit Mandelbrot solved one such problem and earned himself a well-deserving place in history, as the father of fractals. Many of these mathematical structures and their descriptions go back to classical mathematics and mathematicians of the past like Cantor, Peano, Hilbert, Koch, Sierpinski, Julia, Hausdorff, but it was Mandelbrot who extended the early topology. Fractals solve the problem of how to organize the complicated structure in an efficient way. Of course, this was not what Peano and Hilbert were interested in almost 100 years ago. It was only after Mandelbrot’s work that the omnipresence of fractals became apparent.
The economics Nobel laureates have sought an implicit order and efficiency in Time. Starting 1969 Economic Nobel laureates research has focused on business cycles, fluctuations, economic history and mathematical proportion.
Starting with the fundamental idea of an “emerging market economy”, it’s role, utility and dynamics in the current global set up as a balancing economic block, the paper analysis Goldman Sach’s emerging BRIC’s countries model in context of the pre and post 2008 financial crisis. The paper looks at micro and macroeconomic valuations, currency and the economic cycles to illustrate changes in the four economies. Using Japan as a developed economy, the paper also makes a comparative approach and tries to forecast the economic development of the block and respective relation among these countries.
Economics is at the soul of everything including big-ticket sports. Now that football is the number 1 sport in the world, the growth might look obvious. But it has taken more than a few decades for football to attain this cult. Was it chance that we reached here to a 1 billion audience, was it smart visionaries that made it happen or was it social behavior?
A search on “state”, “failed state” will bring out search results like real estate, United States, state insurance, anything but the idea of a state. It’s not only on the world wide web but even real societies that still struggle to accept the idea of a failed state.
