The success in the new age is a lot different from what we experienced 11 years back. The shy public which needed market research surveys to bring out feedback is keener to offer comments.
The 1980s high was 150, talking about a 200 dollar target is much beyond the euro-dollar parity. What could be a few reasons a target beyond previous high at 150 may start assuming some probability? First: Dollar Index has made average 15-year cycles starting 1970’s. A bottoming cycle in 2008 at least suggests multiyear strength well into 2012. Second, Oscillators have made a multiyear non-confirmation of more than a decade. Non-confirmations of such large time frames could validate the time cycle case. Third: The formation from 1985 looks more like a completing corrective than a trend. This means even if we assume an ongoing counter-trend, prices could reach back to previous highs at 150.
Classifying social mood and labeling it with wave counts is still an expertise, especially if you are new to Elliott Waves. Though Socionomics experts defined and developed an essential treatise on social behavior, quantification of Socionomics (the study of human social behavior) — like behavioral finance — isn’t easy.
Earthquake science can be used in markets because of time fractals. The earthquake science working for markets is an opinion as old as the butterfly effect and the study on Sun cycles influencing markets. Xavier Gabaix, assistant professor of economics at MIT, did not say that earthquake causes market behavior, but that large-scale events in the stock market adhere to distinct patterns which can be witnessed in seismic activity. The MIT professor suggests that economists should borrow the earthquake math from scientists who model natural disasters, the power curve mathematics.
Do you know how many times you use “Probably” in a day? The word refers to the possibility of a certain event happening. Irrespective of our ability to calculate the probability, we frequently estimate, compare and make decisions based on probability. It is a subjective degree of belief in the occurrence of an event. The concept of probability has philosophical, psychological and scientific interpretations. Putting simply, the probability of an event is the ratio between the number of favorable events and the number of all equally possible cases.
The exponential decay of time proves that all the focus on studying news, prices, psychology, and mathematical order are indirect ways to study time.
80/20 is a globally used term and another name for the Pareto principle. Though initially used to illustrate wealth allocation 80/20 was found to be a verified law (power-law).
Socrates often said his wisdom was limited to the awareness of his own ignorance. He believed the best way for people to live was to focus on self-development rather than the pursuit of material wealth. Socrates seems to have been notorious for asking questions but not answering, claiming to lack wisdom. Perhaps his most important contribution to western thought is his dialectic method of inquiry, known as the Socratic Method, which he largely applied to the examination of key moral concepts such as the good and justice.
The local priest is happy with the crisis. “People are coming back to churches and the faith is increasing”. The nine-year cycles linked with religion and credit witness increase (decrease) in deposits every nine years linked with the decrease (increase) in the number of people going to church. Bloomberg has repeatedly reported the Hedge funds come-to-Jesus partners meeting, a time for unpleasant confessions and admittance that “I screwed up”.
Challenging Einstein might be blasphemy, but there are a host of papers and published scientific features asking the same question. Was Einstein wrong? Even if he was wrong, what’s that got to do with markets and economics? We already talked about self-similarity of research in ‘The Time Fractal’. Physicists and economists have more in common than what is being published or talked about. If the ongoing research proves that the thinker was wrong, it would bring old schools down and erect new institutions.
Extending time fractals to explain the transformation of the bell curve into the Pareto principle reconciles the 150 years efficient and inefficient market debate.
The omnipresent three systems is not a coincidence, it might be the pulse of everything.
Three is often the largest number written with as many lines as the number represents. To this day 3 is written as three lines in Roman and Chinese numerals. This was the way the Indians wrote it, and it was after the Guptas, the Nagaris, and the Western Ghubar Arabs that we created our modern 3.
A simple triangle can integrate all market theories. Can we spot it? While writing ‘Theory of Moral Sentiments’ in 1776, Adam Smith would never have thought that after 2 centuries people will find it oxymoronic to see morals and sentiment in the same phrase. Now, sentiment creates the popular news, lack of morals are ascribed to capitalists and what’s left of the father’s work are fragmented theories.
We are on our way to Greenwich to see the time laboratory, the conventional origin of time. We came for business to London, but the history of the place is too big to restrict the travel to just work. For more than two years, we have to address the issue of alternative research, challenging conventional thought, understanding sentiment and a host of other ideas. We asked many questions. But the only question that really bothers or concerns the human today is the question of time.
I have the privilege of working very close to the city center and since the city is surrounded by hills, as you move away from the center, the altitude keeps rising. This gives me a chance to see a big 600-year-old church surrounded by long pine trees and celebrated by a huge metal statue of an armed king riding a horse, ready for battle. The view, a few 100 meters away, keeps looking at me from the office window. Matei Corvin the Hungarian king defended the country in 1458-1490 from the Ottoman Empire (1299-1923). The Ottoman Empire is viewed as an offshoot of the Mongol Empire.
Both Jonathan Clements and Hersh Shefrin say it’s tough looking for the next Lynch. Clement said it in 1990 in an article in Wall Street Journal, while Hersh says it loud in his book on behavioral finance. They are both true, finding a 13-year stellar growth record with the underlying fund growing from $ 20 million to $ 13 billion is a textbook case study, rare.
The Oct low we talked about held against all odds. A strange time cycle held against all conventional knowledge, which failed. And now that 2008 comes to end, we can sum up a few gaps in generational thinking which concerns us as a society and as economic beings.