When I first met him, I had the feeling that a movie star was in front of me. He looks like a movie star, but he thinks like a visionary. He comes from India, the largest democracy in the world, a country with an incredible past, and a bright future; a land of choices, a country with as many Gods as you can count, and a wonderful cuisine. Not to mention the incredible philosophical, religious, and cultural traditions and also the amazing scientific discoveries. That’s why it was not very clear to me, at the beginning, what he was doing here, in Romania, in Cluj. After a while, I understood.
There are many universal laws, but few or none are used to understand markets. Stock markets are natural systems and express universal laws. Building a case for an application built around such laws is not easy, as failure or noise effects universality too. Mean reversion is a universal law, which has also suffered from failure and noise. The patterns and noise in mean reversion has been witnessed across subjects like Behavioral Finance, Intermarket Analysis, and Statistics etc. However, little has been done to understand the failure of mean reversion. The talk will focus on comprehending the failures of mean reversion and how it could be redefined into a better statistical and universal risk management framework, have cross sector application like investment management and predicting trends etc.
” The New Passive ” – 20 Oct 2013
The investment business is primarily about beating a sector benchmark, or peer funds, or simply delivering more than a composite index. Though 90% of the money managers fail to consistently beat the benchmark, delivering more than the benchmark is considered as a filter which separates the outperformers from the rest. While the market community is focused on this outperformance, little research has been done on financial innovation which recreates, redefines, recalculate the benchmark (composite index) itself, to enhance alpha, reduce risk and extend the passive indexing domain. Very few have attempted this feat like S&P Dow Jones Indices, Russell and Fundamental index, the innovators end up becoming the new market itself. The presentation will talk about the new age global indexing techniques and index enhancing smart beta approaches and how Indian investors and money managers can utilize the new passive for diversification and risk management across Indian asset classes
The Active Money Management System
• How active money management style can adopt a new look as compared to passive investing.
• Approach to build a new active system.
• Indian Equity Market based active money management systems.
The investment business is primarily about beating a sector benchmark, or peer funds, or simply delivering more than a composite index. Though 90% of the money managers fail to consistently beat the benchmark, delivering more than the benchmark is considered as a filter which separates the outperformers from the rest. While the market community is focused on this outperformance, little research has been done on financial innovation which recreates, redefines, recalculate the benchmark (composite index) itself, to make a new benchmark. Very few have attempted this feat like S&P Dow Jones Indices, Russell and Fundamental index, the innovators end up becoming the new market itself.
I was in Budapest for a market conference. The theme was based on Martin Pring’s recent book, ‘Investing in another lost decade'. Pring is the second generation of technicians along with John Murphy and Robert Prechter. Pring’s generation followed the generation of J. Welles Wilder, Joseph E. Granville and Ralph N Elliott.
Though CYCLES are discussed and talked about for a few hundred years, few researchers have attempted a composite theory of Time CYCLES. The few thinkers were Samuel Benner, Joseph Schumpeter and Tony Plummer. The event will discuss a brief history on Time CYCLES and build on it to explain how seasonality and cyclicality also exists in performance. The speaker will illustrate cyclicality in price performance and how it can be combined with technical analysis to create trading setups, identify investment opportunities and build portfolios.
Evenimentul va menține structura și modul de organizare de la evenimentele anterioare, concepute și construite pe ideea de a crea o platformă de oportunități și business networking pentru antreprenorii și managerii români. Sunt singurele evenimente care integrează în jurul ideii de business networking interesele celor trei mari categorii de stakeholderi ce iau parte la ele: participanți, speakeri și parteneri.
In my previous life, before I transitioned to building machines, sported a artist look and dabbled in the non-scientific, mystical art of forecasting. I distinctly recall receiving a call from a trader at a top bank who asked me how I could allow reporters to label me as an oracle. Fame has a heady feeling when you are in your twenties or thirties. Having experienced numerous market swings, including the turbulent years of 2000 and 2007, I became convinced that forecasting was a vain science. The majority neither cared about a bearish forecast at the peak of a bull market, nor at the bottom. People generally hate forecasters who bring bad news. Wealth required more of risk management than predictions, and I could never be a machine. I had to create machines to replace me.
These are some of the pictures from the 20 May TED event. We will post the videos in 3 weeks. Mukul spoke about the mathematical nature of Time and how it could change the way we see the world around us. TED is a nonprofit devoted to Ideas Worth Spreading. It started out (in 1984) as a conference bringing together people from three worlds: Technology, Entertainment, Design. Since then its scope has become ever broader. Along with two annual conferences — the TED Conference in Long Beach and Palm Springs each spring, and the TEDGlobal conference in Edinburgh UK each summer — TED includes the award-winning TEDTalks video site, the Open Translation Project and TED Conversations, the inspiring TED Fellows and TEDx programs, and the annual TED Prize.
Why is Gold a multiyear investment?
Where is the global economy headed?
What is the DOW JONES year end perspective?
How can you hedge with Dow, SIF5 futures?
Can hedging make a profit?
What are the different arbitrage strategies in Romania?
What is the mathematical approach to stock picking?
How to reduce portfolio risk?
Performance is cyclical and is based on time cyclicality. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. All of Euro vs. Dollar, Indian Rupee vs. USD, Oil vs. Natural Gas, Gold vs. Platinum and Dow vs. S&p500 have performance cyclicality in them. The presentation will introduce the subject and illustrate how stock picking and trading strategies can be built around the technique. Relative performance is also referred to as Alpha.
