We embarked on a tram ride in Manastur, a suburb of Cluj, a city with a 2000-year-old Roman history, destined for the city center. The tram itself was a rickety contraption, with doors opening and closing abruptly, giving passengers mere seconds to hop on or off. Initially, this was quite unnerving, but it soon turned into a thrilling game. We began to relish the swaying, jolting, and frequent stops. The tram tracks stretched between Central Park and the river, offering views of nature on both sides, framed by uninspiring communist-era apartment buildings lacking any architectural charm. However, the river flowing through the city carried a magnetic energy that breathed life into the historic city, adorned with old Baroque structures and magnificent edifices.
Our stop was Strada (Romanian for street) Baritiu, where the RomTelecom building stood as a relic from the pre-communist era, its enduring presence contrasting sharply with the vivid yellow logo of the newly-established Bank of Transilvania on the opposite side of the tram tracks. We had meticulously punched our tram tickets, ensuring the holes were clear to avoid fines from surprise ticket inspectors. I had transported myself into the second-wealthiest city in Romania, which was on the brink of transforming into a modern metropolis with new roads and Wi-Fi-enabled trams. I was firmly planted in the present, experiencing the past, blissfully unaware of the future that awaited.
Upon disembarking at the bridge station, we strolled across a 100-yard bridge, marveling at its undeniable beauty. It was no wonder that the riverbanks were adorned with coffee shops and floating terraces. One of them bore the name Roland Garros. After crossing the bridge, a turn onto Strada Dacian, named after the ancient agrarian society that lived in the region of Dacia, what is now Romania before the Roman conquest, a left turn led us to Strada Einstein.
Number 8 on Strada Einstein was distinguished by an iron gate with a smaller entry gate that granted us access. Our purpose was to meet with the CEO of a brokerage company called SSIF Broker, the largest brokerage firm in the country, responsible for over 10% of the trading volume in a burgeoning frontier capital market with a market cap of 30 billion dollars. It was the year 2005, and after an unsuccessful job hunt in Bucharest, I had returned to Cluj, my place of residence, in pursuit of employment opportunities. Foreigners were still a rare sight in a country that had witnessed a revolution only 15 years earlier. The city thirsted for resources and capital but had little to offer to foreigners.
We entered the building and introduced ourselves to the secretary, who promptly ushered us into the CEO's office for the meeting. My wife at the time, Domnita, a linguist fluent in English-Romanian translation provided the CEO with an introduction. He listened attentively to her account of my background. Mr. Petru, a former boxer turned economist turned businessman, was sharp, articulate, and inquisitive. After a few minutes of hearing her story, he acknowledged my presence and handed me an A4-sized printed sheet, gesturing for me to examine it and asked her to inquire whether I could comprehend its contents. I scrutinized the sheet, which displayed a different-looking English like language with tables that appeared to be stock symbols and financial ratios. It resembled a morning meeting report for discussion, something I was familiar with from my days in Mumbai, where morning meetings were filled with fundamental analyses. I replied that these seemed to be fundamental ratios for various stock symbols. Domnita translated my response to him. He smiled, reclaimed the paper, and summoned someone from an adjacent room.
The house had a series of interconnected rooms, each leading to the next until reaching a wall. A young man, roughly my age, appeared with an unusually cheerful and charismatic demeanor. The CEO instructed him to conduct the next interview. The man was Nicu Pascu, the head of research at that time, and he invited me into an adjoining room. He spoke deliberately but was proficient in English, sparing me the need for translation. He greeted me warmly and seemed genuinely pleased to see me. He was dressed in a pristine white shirt and wore a perpetual smile. He asked if I knew how to analyze charts, and although I was a derivatives analyst in Mumbai, familiarity with chart analysis was essential. I was a novice but had read a few books and was preparing for my Chartered Market Technician (CMT) certification. I eagerly responded with a resounding yes.
The room was smaller than 10 by 10 feet, packed with wooden furniture and office chairs strewn about. Five people were diligently working, curious about my presence but too focused on their tasks to divert their attention. I was introduced to them: Floricica, Bogdan and Teddy, a blind young man, who had lost his sight in a road accident during a trip to or from Bucharest. He was engrossed in his work, wearing headphones as he programmed an electronic documentation system for the company. It felt like a startup environment, reminiscent of my early days at the Bombay Stock Exchange, working in the basement office of Indiabulls, a company which later became a conglomerate with multi billion dollars market capitalization. I had left all that behind for a life in Romania, driven by love. And now, here I was in this room, wondering about the unfolding events.
Nicu Pascu gestured toward a chair in the corner of the room, next to a 486 desktop. He powered up the computer, made a few clicks, and launched charting software. Then, he sat beside me as Domnita stood nearby, both of us feeling a sense of anticipation. A black-and-white candlestick chart appeared on the screen. I was comfortable with charting software and began to study the chart, and what I saw left me astonished. These were textbook charts, depicting multi-year rounding bottoms that had recently broken their necklines. I looked at the chart, then at Nicu, and with enthusiasm, I began to share my analysis, explaining what should happen next for this company. It was BRD, a banking stock, which would later be acquired by the French giant SocGen.
"This stock is poised for a significant upward movement over the next few years. These are substantial accumulation patterns that have confirmed a breakout," I declared. Nicu smiled back at me and inquired if I could provide a more short-term analysis, such as for a week or a day. I examined a shorter time frame and described the daily candlestick pattern, emphasizing that the short-term trend remained positive and the stock was likely to perform well in the coming days. Suddenly, Nicu got up, as if he had remembered something important, excused himself, and disappeared into another room. I exchanged a puzzled look with Domnita, both of us taking a moment to catch our breath, feeling somewhat lost and frozen in our positions as we waited.
Within a few minutes, Nicu returned, wearing a broad smile. He asked me to repeat the exercise with another stock. This process repeated itself five or six times. Each time he vanished into the adjacent room, politely closing the wooden door behind him, only to reappear a few minutes later. The third time he returned from the room, he exclaimed, "Good, very good." I was puzzled, unsure if he was referring to my analyses or something else entirely. His smile grew even broader, and on his final return, he declared, "You can start tomorrow." It was the longest journey I had taken to a foreign land, but it turned out to be the shortest work interview. Both of us breathed sighs of relief and thanked everyone, mirroring Nicu's infectious smile. I expressed my gratitude in Romanian, saying "multumesc," to which he jokingly replied, "Cu Plăcere, Alta data nu mai cere," meaning, "don't mention it and don't ever ask for it."
It took me some time to unravel the mystery. Nicu had provided me with day-old data. Each time he disappeared into the other room, he was verifying the price action during the day to test my forecasting capability. This was how, on Strada Einstein, sometime in July 2005, my journey in Cluj Napoca, Romania, the capital city of Transylvania, the land of Dracula, began.
About Romania
Romania is a diverse and emerging economy located in Southeastern Europe. As a member of the European Union (EU), Romania has made significant strides in its economic development since joining the EU in 2007. The country’s economy is characterized by key sectors, including manufacturing, information technology, agriculture, services, and energy.
The manufacturing sector, particularly automotive manufacturing, has been a major driver of economic growth, attracting international car manufacturers and contributing to exports. Romania is also renowned for its thriving information technology sector, with cities like Cluj-Napoca and Bucharest serving as tech hubs. The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in the country’s economy, benefiting from fertile farmland and a long history of agricultural traditions.
Romania’s natural resources include extensive forests, valuable agricultural land, minerals such as coal and copper, and significant potential for renewable energy sources like hydropower. The country has been investing in expanding its renewable energy capacity to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
Tourism is another vital economic resource, with Romania’s picturesque landscapes, historic sites, and cultural heritage attracting visitors from around the world. However, the country also faces challenges, including the need for further development, improved infrastructure, and addressing issues related to corruption and income inequality.
Romania’s capital market, anchored by the Bucharest Stock Exchange, offers investment opportunities for both domestic and international investors. While the country has made progress in developing its capital market and regulatory framework, it continues to work towards greater transparency and attracting foreign investment.
In terms of economic growth, Romania’s economy is projected to grow by 3.2% in 20231. This growth is expected to be driven by strong private consumption and robust investment1. However, high inflation, tight financing conditions, and more muted growth in trading partners are all set to slow down real growth1. Despite these headwinds, private consumption growth is expected to stay positive on the back of higher wages and pensions1. The general government deficit is set to fall to 4.7% in 20231, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to reach 45.6% in 20231.
Overall, Romania is a nation with a diverse economy, rich natural resources, and a promising future, as it seeks to overcome challenges and further integrate into the global economy.
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