Intelligence/ Machine Investing
What If?
Message from Friends
Friends have started calling me, messaging me. Most of them, anxious about missing the 'doubling the returns in under a year' bus. This is different from the calls which I receive at market lows. I will be honest. I am not an advisor. I build intelligence machines, which manage money, can advise, and do a host of other intelligence things.
Machine Investing Future
I left advising back at the 2007 peak when I realized, telling people to stay away because markets “will” (I was young and reckless) fall 60%, fell on deaf ears. Years later, bumping into old clients, which you sometimes do, in small European cities, delayed acknowledgments were gratifying but it was clear to me that humans will always herd, never learn because that’s how nature worked. 99% plus percent will always be clueless and hence the future belonged to emotionless machines, which could harness those inefficiencies, to salvage humanity to take them to another realm of Science.
Challenge
This Clarkian magic machine to see into the future, a year, a few years, or a decade ahead can’t be done with data because no data goes back 90 years when the last debt deflation happened and since Economics is not a science with a capital S (Robert Solow), where does it leave us? Nowhere. A handful of people, the less than the 1% talking about debt deflation or depression, don’t build machines yet. So, you see my challenge.
What-if Scenarios
Machines can’t be built by ignoring the What-if-Scenarios. What if we are indeed all becoming Japanese? What if we are in for a low growth period? What if we are in for a continued commodity meltdown? What if, the economic meltdown will be followed by a war? What if 4°C world is an impending reality? What if society will never understand the law of ruin?
How prepared are we?
We are $277 trillion in global debt, near 0% in interest rate, behind a 10-year bull market, and peak madness prepared. We are in a historic time and as they say, fortune prefers the prepared mind.
In the end, it does not matter whether nothing changes, it is the capability to think the unthinkable, which prepares us to extend philosophy, which can build new science, the intelligence that comes with it, and gives humanity another chance.
Message to Friends: Learn to slow down and detach.