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Mean Reversion Framework Assuming Jiseki is a proxy for natural systems, it should express the reversion and divergence behavior as explained by Galton. The Jiseki ranking is split into three bins; the 0-20 value bin (V); the 80-100 growth bin (G) and the core(transition, middle) bin (C) from 20-80. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616934166371-QSVG7VZPGGS2T9FHYGPE/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+8.22.07+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework Table.– N225 vs. BVSP pair positive returns validates performance cycle time projections https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616933755379-AG2W2QCBS52GPADAWT59/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+8.14.48+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework The direction of Relative performance growing and decaying can suggest whether the diverging premium between any two variables (or asset prices) is increasing, decreasing or stagnating. This is an efficient way to quantify the spreads, first step to quantify a divergence visual, but still not enough to anticipate to direction of the divergence. This quantification still can’t anticipate direction in different degrees of time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616938498223-2U85M7H0VFIL8TS85Y1Y/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+9.32.25+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework Table; Absolute Percent changes in the Jiseki Value components(0-20 proxy rankings) moving all the way up to 50 rankings and higher, depicted as % V > 50. And absolute Jiseki Growth components (80-100 proxy rankings) moving all the way down to 50 rankings and lower. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616939143058-EMUKLGBWV26FFTFFHI9M/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+9.44.49+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework Outlier performance in the last 5-6 years. The table above observes that 44% to 25% of the negative outliers witnessed outliers witnessed mean reversion tendency. * < 20% means ranking less than 20% * > 50% means ranking greater than 50% https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616933131870-H1B15BRTVYMIN9DXT8B2/15-TableIV-1.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework The table above explains one cycle of concentration and dispersion. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616933910736-0GLLZVM66LDMHYP4EV2Y/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+8.17.35+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework The left hand chart illustrates daily Rate of Change over daily return prices and the right hand chart illustrates RP relative performance and a smoothed rate of change indicator (ROC). Relative performance change; The results are the daily change in relative performance for Alcoa. This looks like a stochastic process. Smoothened daily change in relative performance; A 60 period averaging is done for the data. When smoother for a quarterly duration, the stochastic process starts to show a tendency. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616934533344-P99TX0JMH2CVYIYWQI2P/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+8.28.12+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/0dcb25ab-4baa-4174-b1f8-28d560df14dd/Screen+Shot+2022-05-06+at+12.22.47+PM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616936146883-VDFPZ9HNO1U4J2A6TFXR/Oscillator.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework The oscillator for Bank of America (BAC) indicates outperformance against DJIA (Dow) if the oscillator turns up and vice versa. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616934425118-QZUVNLLJDZH6UAMTSJ5D/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+8.25.59+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework Extending Relative Performance between a pair to a group, Divergence cyclicality https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616939030002-VI16WKB0IHP3294AW2CB/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+9.43.14+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework The illustration above is a summary of the two tables above for a period of 3750 days. The Figures (histograms) are the % components from V value bin (light grey) and G growth bin (dark grey) that have moved to above 50 ranking and below 50 rankings respectively. An average of nearly 50% value and growth components move above and below the 50 mean. This illustrates a case of Galtonian reversion using the Jiseki proxy. The section on the right hand side marked ‘Divergence’ is the number of components in the 40-60 Core ranking move toward 0-20 Value bin at the bottom extreme and 80-100 Growth at the top extreme. This case of Divergence illustrates that just like Reversion, there are components in the Jiseki proxy that illustrate divergence from the mean. The Reversion numbers are around 50% and are similar to the average 38% in case of Divergence. The summary illustration suggests that Jiseki proxy experiences both reversion and divergence, a classic expression in case of natural systems. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616934063442-4UMUJ2BQBMNAASYD5BH8/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+8.19.48+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework Fig. – N225 vs. BVSP ratio performance cycles on time projections https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616934712195-O4PQ8ZFBVI0PGLSX9TW8/Asset+Dow+30+Bank+Of+America+%28benchmarked+with+DJIA%29.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616936608670-BOGB9SY7HEBZF7KG4IRU/Random-Order-Herding.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework Thrashing “herding” behavior; The thrashing “herding” behavior witnessed in universal systems are similar to the near 0% and near 100% rankings of Jiseki Group where winners and losers. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616936410904-6JWZZYLTTPF37LKUD2Y1/Flock.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework Reality is far diverging from an average, averages are moving and have life, are dynamic and not static. The black swans, the outliers, the freak accidents, the successive luck, the toss of a long sequence of heads in a toss, the fat tails are just too frequent to keep challenging the illusion of an average. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58bd1341d482e9728b9bd8fb/1616938684730-O3FV5Q3TRWYYJZMVFSRE/Screen+Shot+2021-03-28+at+9.32.47+AM.png Blog - Mean Reversion Framework Table; Absolute percent number of Jiseki components(40-60 proxy rankings) moving all the way up to Growth (G) 80-100, depicted as % C to G. 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